00908nam a2200145 a 450000500170000000800400001710000170005724500590007426400160013333600090014933800200015852004720017850600460065085600660069620260901030413.0250101s2020    xx     o     000 0 eng d1 aSean Elliott10aUncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model 1barXivc2020  atext  aonline resource  aThe aim of this paper is to understand the extreme variability on the estimated reproduction ratio $R_0$ observed in practice. For expository purpose we consider a discrete time stochastic version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimators of $R_0$. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate by a Monte-Carlo study the width of confidence intervals on $R_0$.0 aOpen access — freely available to read.40uhttps://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.11542v1yRead the full paper (PDF)