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  <titleInfo>
    <title>Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model</title>
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  <name type="personal">
    <namePart>Sean Elliott</namePart>
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    <dateIssued encoding="marc">2020</dateIssued>
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  <abstract>The aim of this paper is to understand the extreme variability on the estimated reproduction ratio $R_0$ observed in practice. For expository purpose we consider a discrete time stochastic version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimators of $R_0$. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate by a Monte-Carlo study the width of confidence intervals on $R_0$.</abstract>
  <note>Open access — freely available to read.</note>
  <identifier type="uri">https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.11542v1</identifier>
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    <url displayLabel="Read the full paper (PDF)">https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.11542v1</url>
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  <accessCondition type="restrictionOnAccess">Open access — freely available to read.</accessCondition>
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