01434nam a2200169 a 4500 20260901030413.0 250101s2020 xx o 000 0 eng d Claus Thorn Ekstrøm Having a Ball: evaluating scoring streaks and game excitement using in-match trend estimation arXiv 2020 text online resource Many popular sports involve matches between two teams or players where each team have the possibility of scoring points throughout the match. While the overall match winner and result is interesting, it conveys little information about the underlying scoring trends throughout the match. Modeling approaches that accommodate a finer granularity of the score difference throughout the match is needed to evaluate in-game strategies, discuss scoring streaks, teams strengths, and other aspects of the game. We propose a latent Gaussian process to model the score difference between two teams and introduce the Trend Direction Index as an easily interpretable probabilistic measure of the current trend in the match as well as a measure of post-game trend evaluation. In addition we propose the Excitement Trend Index - the expected number of monotonicity changes in the running score difference - as a Open access — freely available to read. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.11915v1 Read the full paper (PDF) ERES 711 711 0 0 0 3 GEN MAIN MAIN SCICOMP 2026-09-01 0 YGE000972 2026-09-01 03:04:14 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.11915v1 2026-09-01 PAPER